The history of computers and computer technology thus far has been a long and a fascinating one, stretching back more than half a century to the first primitive computing machines. These machines were huge and complicated affairs, consisting of row upon row of vacuum tubes and wires, often encompassing several rooms to fit it all in.
As anyone who has looked at the world of computers lately can attest, the size of computers has been reduced sharply, even as the power of these machines has increased at an exponential rate. In fact, the cost of computers has come down so much that many households now own not only one, but two, three or even more, PCs.
As the world of computers and computer technology continues to evolve and change, many people, from science fiction writers and futurists to computer workers and ordinary users, have wondered what the future holds for the computer and related technologies. Many things have been pictured, from robots in the form of household servants to computers so small they can fit in a pocket. Indeed, some of these predicted inventions have already come to pass, with the introduction of PDA's and robotic vacuum cleaners.
Beyond these innovations, however, there are likely to be many, many more. One of the most important areas of research in the world of computers is that of artificial intelligence. When many people think of artificial intelligence, they may picture fully aware machines, complete with emotions, and the problems that can arise from them. Even though this remains the goal of many artificial intelligence researchers, in fact artificial intelligence technology is already in place and already serving the needs of humans everywhere.
One of the most powerful uses of artificial intelligence thus far is in the world of speech recognition. This powerful technology is already in place in call centers, banks, brokerage centers, insurance companies and other businesses throughout the world. While speech recognition is still imperfect, it has improved greatly in recent years, and in the future many routine, and even non-routine, phone calls and telephone inquiries may be handled completely without human intervention.
Robot technology has also come a long way, but it still has a long way to go. Robots in the future are unlikely to take human form, expect in a few specialized applications. Instead, robots are likely to do a great deal of work that is simply too dangerous for humans to accomplish. From spaceflight applications to search and rescue, robots are likely to continue down the learning curve they have already entered, further enhancing human lives and providing valuable services for a fraction of the cost of today's robot helpers.
Quantum computers are also likely to transform the computing experience, for both business and home users. These powerful machines are already on the drawing board, and they are likely to be introduced in the near future. The quantum computer is expected to be a giant leap forward in computing technology, with exciting implications for everything from scientific research to stock market predictions.
Nanotechnology is another important part of the future of computers, expected to have a profound impact on people around the globe. Nanotechnology is the process whereby matter is manipulated at the atomic level, providing the ability to “build” objects from their most basic parts. Like robotics and artificial intelligence, nanotechnology is already in use in many places, providing everything from stain resistant clothing to better suntan lotion. These advances in nanotechnology are likely to continue in the future, making this one of the most powerful aspects of future computing.
And if history is to be any guide, some of the most powerful advances in the world of computers and computer technology are likely to be completely unforeseen.
In the 1970s, an expert on automation, Sir Leon Bagrit, pointed out that it was a mistake to believe that computers could "think" He went on to add that there was practically no possibility that human beings would ever be "controlled by machines". Though computers are capable of learning from their mistakes and improving on their performance, I believe that they will always need detailed instructions from human beings in order to be able to operate. Whatever the future of the computers may be, they'll never lead independent lives or make decisions of their own. And they'll certainly never "rule the world." As far as I am concerned, I guess I'll always need a pencil and a rubber.
A major frontier over the next one or two decades is certain to be the “user interface” for complex information systems. How can it become a more natural environment that transcends limitations of keyboard, mouse, and screen—moving toward an immersive environment in which attributes of human face-to-face exchange can essentially be captured? Ultimately,"virtual environments," in which we respond to lifelike simulations that are replete with artificially created sights, sounds, and other stimuli, may liberate us from physical restrictions.
Posted by: Mrkmakth | January 09, 2011 at 03:55 PM
Some reasons why computers will never replace humans:
1.Computers are not able to general experimenting. Computers are able to make some specific (narrow) experimentatio though.
2.Computers are not able to make good decisions in "general" environment.
3. Coputers are not able to establish correlation between general concepts.
4.Usually computers are not able to derive concepts from other concepts.
5. Humans have highly developed systems of super goals - such as avoid pain, avoid hunger, sexuality,desire to talk. Super goals implementation in modern computers is very limited.
Posted by: Constantinos | January 09, 2011 at 04:26 PM
So interesting and informative indeed!
Posted by: Phivos Nicolaides | January 09, 2011 at 06:36 PM
soon, computers will take over like robots did in the Will Smith movie, "I,Robots"
Posted by: Kofla Olivieri | January 09, 2011 at 09:07 PM
I work as a human translator for a greek website. Although our website also offers free automated translations from greek into any language and vice-versa, most of our visitors and customers prefer to pay for a professional translation. And a professional translation can only be done by a human being. However sophisticated the advances of IT tech may be in the near future, there's no way - technically speaking - that a machine can grasp idiomatic language for instance or translate a document accurately. By the way, I love the cartoons!!! :-)
Posted by: Christina | January 09, 2011 at 09:28 PM
I couldn't agree more with Kofla Olivieri in the comments here.It's 2035 A.D.,in the movie "I,Robot". Robots are everyday objects and are programmed to live alongside humans. In the movie, Detective Del Spooner is called out to investigate the apparent suicide of the scientist behind these robots, Dr. Alfred Lanning. Spooner suspects that the death might not be a suicide, but the result of one of the robots. All robots are programmed by three laws, but Spooner starts to wonder if a robot can in fact feel emotions, and possibly murder. But if Spooner's suspicions are true, he is going to have a hard time convincing everyone.
This said, I don't mean to say that life or the future is like a blockbuster. But I do believe that in , let's say, 20 years from now, robots (machines) will rule the world. This is scary, I know, but, sometimes science fiction stops to be ...fiction!
Posted by: Lakis Ioannou | January 09, 2011 at 09:59 PM
I think humans are too intelligent to develop a machine which will destroy them!
Posted by: Stefania | January 10, 2011 at 02:21 PM
The new challenges presented by technology are likely to be driven by the next generation of ‘digital natives’, the generation that has grown up with technology. They are the ‘native speakers’ of the digital language of computers, video gaming and the internet.
The rise of social computing, powered by Web 2.0 technologies and the creation of new technologies to form and extend networks will shape future IT products, services and skills. Increasing environmental concerns will also drive the demand for green IT and environmental computing.Such developments will also be underpinned by communication convergence and integration. This includes the development of the use of consumer-based products such as mobile phones and wireless internet access to enable remote working in virtual offices. To me, the future of computers looks very promising.
Posted by: Jim | January 10, 2011 at 10:18 PM
The computers have allowed managing vast amounts of data, accelerating everything we do, in all aspects in our life. However, it has also multiplied the presence of empty information. We are bombarded with media like never before. This provides distractions when we work our tasks.
It is now a matter of cost and developing speed to reach the 'humanlike intelligence'. This paper gives you an idea of where we stand:
http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/power_075.jpg
http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
Intelligence is much different than knowledge. Humans have the experiences of their life to determine what is right and what is wrong. Developing a Moral Compass. Machines need to be aupplied with this information. We can copy data, but a human conscience? There is still a long way to go there.
A machine has all the information available but needs to be instructed on what to do. And humans shouldn't lose access to this knowledge. Success is being achieved in chess, with the Deep Blue computer series. But this is knowledge measured in optimized calculations per second. Human shortcuts gained by experience is a different story.
Regarding the subject, a Butlerian Jihad is central to the Dune novels, when humans uprise to a machine enslaving society:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butlerian_Jihad
Posted by: Beato2501 | January 11, 2011 at 05:28 AM
Mark, to my mind, a "virtual environment in which we respond to lifelike simulations" has nothing to do with real life or reality. I honestly don't think that the computers of the future will liberate us from physical restrictions - whatever these may be.
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 08:17 PM
We programme computers to make decisions, so it all depends on the human factor. Thanks for the feedback.
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 08:20 PM
Oh Kofla! This is scary! I do hope that humans will be able to control machines in the very near future as well!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 08:33 PM
No matter how perfectly a computer can be programmed, it'll never be able to translate effectively idioms from one language to another. Nor do I believe in ...teaching machines!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 08:36 PM
I completely disagree with you, Lakis! There's no way a machine can have emotions - not now, not in thousands of years! But science fiction films will entertain us for yet another millenium, at leat!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 08:41 PM
So do I, Stefania. Machines will have feelings and emotions - such as anger, frustration, revenge - when pigs fly!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 08:53 PM
Jim, it all depends on how we use computers and for what purposes. And I do like the idea of green IT and environmental computing!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 08:56 PM
Right, Beato, a machine has all the information available but needs to be instructed on what to do. As I said above, it all depends on how humans programme this machine and in so doing what tasks they want it to perform. An insane mind will certainly programme an insane machine, for instance. An intelligent mind will programme an "intelligent" machine whose knowledge will be valuable to everyone. There are no intelligent machines, though. There are only intelligent people.
Thanks a million for the links.
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 09:06 PM
Thanks for stopping by, Phivo. I'm sure machines will never rule the world!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 09:09 PM
Don't be so sure dear Anastasia. In fact we should always be a little bit reserved with the absolute truth!!
Posted by: Phivos Nicolaides | January 12, 2011 at 09:44 PM
What's the absolute truth, Phivos? That machines can rule the world? This can happen when humans prove themselves to be...unable to think!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 12, 2011 at 11:10 PM
Absolute truth is when we are definitely convinced for something which we consider out of the question... Well, the absolute truth must be always under question... So, we never know what is gonna happen with the machines after 50 years or so.
Posted by: Phivos Nicolaides | January 12, 2011 at 11:23 PM
If electric cars didn't seem far-reaching enough at first blush, brain reading had almost the opposite effect There are two devices that can read your brain: waves that made it onto Santa's list and brain reading toys. Yes, it is time to realize that this is a technology that will have a tremendous impact on our future! Ah well! I have survived what the world news called a ...tsunami in Australia!!! Hugs and Kisses!
Posted by: Andy | January 12, 2011 at 11:41 PM
That's right , nobody could ever replace the human brain....and certainly they will never rule the world. We all need a pen and paper.
Posted by: Account Deleted | January 16, 2011 at 05:24 AM
Oh Andy! I was so worried! I'm glad you and yours are fine. Brain reading toys??? :-)
Posted by: Anastasia | January 17, 2011 at 12:29 AM
Bing, I'm glad to see I'm not alone! I believe that no one will ever get rid of pens, pencils, rubbers, rulers and paper notebooks! As for machines...they can rule the world if controlled by sick minds.I hope not! And I truly believe this will remain within the sphere of science fiction!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 17, 2011 at 12:34 AM
Right, Phivos. The future is ..unknown. "Que sera, sera - whatever will be, will be." But let's think positive!
Posted by: Anastasia | January 17, 2011 at 12:37 AM